World News Article | Reuters.co.uk

World News Article | Reuters.co.uk: Japan war shrine debate mixes politics, diplomacy
Sun Jul 31, 2005 06:11 AM ET

By Linda Sieg

TOKYO (Reuters) - August in Japan: stifling heat, the cry of cicadas, and a time to ponder defeat in World War Two.

This year's 60th anniversary of Japan's surrender coincides with domestic political strife and diplomatic strains with Asian neighbours, so the atmosphere for reflection is anything but calm.

Instead, a debate over how Japan should view its wartime past -- symbolised by a controversy over whether Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi should visit a Shinto shrine for war dead -- has become intertwined with jockeying to succeed him as premier.

Pressure is growing on Koizumi to halt his annual pilgrimages to the Yasukuni shrine, where war criminals convicted by a 1948 Allied tribunal are honoured with Japan's 2.5 million war dead.

Koizumi, who says he goes to honour war dead and pray for peace, has so far avoided visiting Yasukuni on the emotive August 15 anniversary of the end of the Pacific war. But the pilgrimages have outraged South Korea and China, where many see them as part of efforts to whitewash Japan's past military aggression.

Speculation -- fuelled by talk of an early general election -- is simmering that this year Koizumi will throw diplomatic caution to the wind and keep a campaign pledge made in 2001 to pay his respects at the shrine on August 15.

"The prime minister has his own views, so I can't predict (whether he will go on August 15)," said Takeshi Noda, a member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who this month set up a "study group" for lawmakers critical of the Yasukuni visits.

"Certainly, it is quite possible to satisfy Japanese people's nationalism," Noda said after the group met last week.

"But at the same time he is Japan's leader, he is also an Asian leader, so I want him to make a balanced decision."

STRIDENT NATIONALISM

Noda's move was widely seen as meant to counter a group founded by LDP executive Shinzo Abe to back the Yasukuni visits.

Abe, 50, a hawk on security policy and an outspoken critic of China, is one of a new breed of young neo-conservatives in the LDP and is often cited as top contender to succeed Koizumi.

"They're thinking about the 'post-Koizumi' situation," said Jun Iio, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, referring to Noda's group.

"They want to wave a different flag."

Despite Koizumi's firm popular support, recent opinion polls show a majority of voters think he should stop going to Yasukuni.

Others were less cynical about the reasons why critics of Koizumi's Yasukuni visits are raising their voices after months of sharply deteriorating ties with Seoul and Beijing.

"There are people who are opposed to the signs of resurgent nationalism and see it as counterproductive, as not in Japan's interests as it tries to integrate itself into the East Asian region economically," said Andrew Horvat, a visiting scholar at Tokyo Keizai University.

One of those is former chief cabinet minister and LDP heavy weight Yasuo Fukuda, another potential contender to succeed Koizumi when his term as LDP president expires in September 2006.

Fukuda argues Japan must repair ties with China and South Korea, and backs the notion of a new, secular war memorial where leaders could pay respects without angering Asian countries.

"Hasn't the ambiguity of the Japanese attitude toward World War Two invited the mistrust of other countries?" Fukuda, 69, said in an interview with the Yomiuri newspaper last week.

"The result of such mistrust is reflected in the Yasukuni issue," he said. "It is necessary to send a clear message abroad as Japanese who can be trusted by other countries."

RALLYING CRY?

Jockeying to succeed Koizumi has heated up in part because of a battle between him and anti-reform LDP rebels.

Koizumi has vowed to enact bills to privatise the huge postal delivery, savings and insurance system -- the centrepiece of his agenda for change -- before parliament rises on August 13.

Anti-reform lawmakers, some of whom perhaps ironically are strong supporters of Koizumi's Yasukuni pilgrimages, say they are equally determined to block the bills' passage.

Most analysts expect the legislation to be enacted, if only by a small margin. But Koizumi has tacitly threatened to call a snap election if the legislation fails, and might do so even if the bills are enacted in an attempt to repair a lame duck image.

Some pundits and politicians think LDP neo-conservatives will make nationalism an election rallying cry to try to woo voters anxious about China's rise and gloomy after a decade of economic stagnation, though how well that would play is hard to say.

"There is an increasing number of that sort of politician. It's a way to boost their popularity," Katsuya Okada, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party told Reuters recently.

"In the long term, it would be a mistake for Japan."

© Copyright Reuters 2005. All rights reserved. Any copying, re-publication or re-distribution of Reuters content or of any content used on this site, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without prior written consent of Reuters.

Quotes and other data are provided for your personal information only, and are not intended for trading purposes. Reuters, the members of its Group and its data providers shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the quotes or other data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

© Reuters 2005. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.